Metro Vancouver Condo Construction Just Hit a 15-Year Low. Here's What It Means for North Shore Buyers
CMHC's Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report shows condo starts across Metro Vancouver at their weakest since 2011, while purpose-built rental construction fills the gap. Here's what that shift means if you own, or want to buy, a condo on the North Shore.
“• Condo apartment starts across Metro Vancouver fell another 40% in the first half of 2026, the weakest six-month stretch for new condo construction since 2011, according to CMHC’s own Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report.
• Purpose-built rental construction is filling the gap instead. Rental starts are up 36% year over year and now make up roughly 60% of all Vancouver-area housing starts, up from under 20% a decade ago.
• Condos are still the main source of new ownership housing in this region. Fewer condos breaking ground now means fewer completions in 2028 and beyond, and a tighter pool of ownership stock down the road.
• If you’re deciding whether to buy a presale now or wait for “more supply” to show up, this report is worth five minutes.”
THE SHIFT: RENTAL CRANES ARE UP, CONDO CRANES AREN’T
A "housing start" is the official point when construction actually begins on a building, not when it's announced or listed for presale. CMHC tracks these across the region every quarter, and the Fall 2026 numbers show a clear divide.
Rental apartment starts (purpose-built buildings meant to stay rentals, not condos sold unit by unit) rose 36% compared to 2025. Condo apartment starts, on the other hand, fell 40% further in the first half of 2026 on top of an already weak 2025. CMHC calls it the weakest first half for new condo construction in the region since 2011.
CMHC's own data: condo starts across Metro Vancouver are down 40% in the first half of 2026, the slowest pace since 2011, while rental starts are up 36% over the same period.
Ten years ago, condo starts outnumbered rental starts by roughly two to one. As of the second quarter of 2026, they're nearly even, at just over 10,000 units each for the quarter. That's not a blip. It's a genuine shift in what gets built.
WHY DEVELOPERS ARE CHOOSING RENTAL OVER CONDO RIGHT NOW
This isn't a mystery, and it isn't really about the North Shore specifically. It's a financing decision developers are making project by project across the region.
A condo project only pencils out if enough units presell before construction starts, since that's what lenders typically require to finance the build. With presale demand soft and construction costs still elevated, fewer condo projects are clearing that bar. Meanwhile, rental buildings come with municipal incentives, rental-specific zoning, and financing programs that make them viable even when condo projects sit on the shelf. CMHC also points to a real inventory overhang in Surrey, the City of Vancouver, and especially Burnaby (completed condo units that haven't sold yet), which makes lenders even more cautious about greenlighting new condo towers nearby.
None of this means demand for ownership housing has disappeared. It means the supply side has quietly reorganized itself around what's financeable right now, not necessarily what buyers will want in three or four years.
WHAT A WEAK CONDO PIPELINE MEANS FOR THE NORTH SHORE
Condos remain the main way new ownership housing gets added to the North Shore, the way I've written about before with Lonsdale's specific shortage of larger, family-sized units. A start today typically means a completion two to four years out. Fewer starts in 2025 and 2026 means fewer new condos hitting the market in 2028 and beyond, regardless of how demand behaves between now and then.
CMHC frames this plainly: the region's current pace of housing starts is still 5,000 to 7,000 units short of what's needed each year to bring affordability back to pre-pandemic levels by 2036. Weak condo construction is the piece of that gap most likely to show up as tighter competition for ownership stock down the road, even as population growth has actually slowed for the moment and eased some near-term pressure.
That's the tension worth sitting with. Today's market has more breathing room than it did a couple of years ago. But the pipeline behind today's market is thinner than it's been in over a decade, and that's a longer runway story than any single month of sales data can tell you.
Condo Starts vs. Rental Starts, Vancouver CMA
Quarterly starts pace, 2016 Q4 to 2026 Q2
Source: CMHC, Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report.
What This Means for You
If you're weighing a North Vancouver presale purchase right now, I wouldn't treat "wait for more supply" as a safe default assumption. The data says the opposite is more likely: fewer new condo completions are coming, not more, at least through 2028. That doesn't mean buy today out of urgency, it means the calculus should be about your own timeline and the specific project, not a general bet that more choice is around the corner.
If you already own a North Shore condo, this is a quiet tailwind for your building's long-term value, since the supply that would eventually compete with it is being built more slowly than usual. And if you're a buyer who's been sitting out because the market feels uncertain, it's worth knowing that "uncertain" and "oversupplied" are two different things right now. This market is neither hot nor flooded. It's just building less than it used to.
A Low-Pressure Next Step
If you're trying to figure out whether a specific presale project makes sense given where construction is actually headed, or whether it's smarter to buy resale while the pipeline catches up, send me a message. I'm happy to walk through what I'm seeing on a particular building or neighbourhood, no pressure either way.
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604.317.4464
Matt@RossettiRealty.ca
About Matt Council
Matt Council is a North Vancouver Realtor and West Van specialist with a background in finance, focused on a data-driven, pressure-free approach to buying and selling on the North Shore.