The "Trump Effect": Will the US Election Impact North Shore Real Estate?
Executive Summary
At a Glance: Separating Hype from Reality
The History: During Trump’s first term, US migration to Canada jumped by roughly 50% compared to the Obama years.
The Roadblock: The "Foreign Buyer Ban" is still in effect until 2027, preventing most Americans from buying homes immediately.
The Real Risk: Since most newcomers cannot buy, they will rent. This puts pressure on our already tight rental market, not home prices.
1. The Data: Did They Actually Move Last Time?
Every election cycle, we hear people say, "If he wins, I'm moving to Canada." But do they actually show up? The numbers say yes, but it’s not a tidal wave.
US Migration Numbers (Per Year Average):
Bush Era: ~6,900 people/year
Obama Era: ~7,500 people/year
Trump Era (1st Term): ~11,750 people/year
The Takeaway: There was a clear spike during Trump’s first term. However, even at its peak, adding ~11,000 people across all of Canada is a drop in the bucket compared to our general population growth.
2. The "Wall" for Buyers: The Foreign Buyer Ban
The biggest difference between 2016 and today is the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act.
Until January 1, 2027, most Americans legally cannot buy a home here.
Who IS allowed to buy?
Dual Citizens: People holding both US and Canadian passports.
Work Permit Holders: Those with valid permits who meet specific criteria (like tax filings).
Permanent Residents: Americans who have already completed the immigration process.
Market Impact: Because most impulsive movers won't qualify for these exemptions immediately, we do not expect a sudden spike in home sales or bidding wars fueled by American cash.
3. The "Currency Coupon" (The USD Advantage)
For the small group of Americans who are eligible to buy (e.g., dual citizens returning home), the market is effectively "on sale."
With the US Dollar significantly stronger than the Canadian Dollar, an American buyer has massive purchasing power. A $2 million North Vancouver home might cost them roughly $1.4 million USD. This gives them a major advantage over local buyers earning in Canadian dollars.
4. The "Squeeze" is on Rentals, Not Sales
This is the most important takeaway for locals.
If Americans move here but are banned from buying, they have to rent.
Vacancy is Low: North Vancouver vacancy rates are already hovering around 1%.
Budgets are High: Americans earning US wages can often afford higher rents than locals.
The Result: A wave of newcomers could drive rental prices up, making it harder for local tenants to find housing. The pressure point isn't the housing market; it's the rental market.
Analyst Verdict
Don't believe the hype about a housing market boom caused by the US election. The Foreign Buyer Ban acts as a firewall. While we may see more "For Rent" signs taken down, we likely won't see "Sold" signs popping up just because of the White House results.
About Matt Council
Matt Council is a top-performing North Vancouver Realtor and West Van specialist with a background in finance. He moves beyond the sales hype to offer clients a data-driven, pressure-free approach to buying and selling real estate on the North Shore. Whether you are evaluating a presale in Lower Lonsdale or a detached home in Lynn Valley, Matt helps you understand the numbers behind the move.
Thinking of making a move? Let’s run the numbers.